Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #678 of 1,000

P0697

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 54,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 875

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 125

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 606Deviation -R 2 519

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 125. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 274

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 688 to R 18 578
Finished ahead: 308 / 1,000 (30,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #762 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,87% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.045
Mean bets / session: 4.058
Loss multiplier: 1.2679×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 93,5% / 73,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 15 00525 wagers · RTP 78,21%

CrashR 13 70330 wagers · RTP 161,16%

American RouletteR 11 62321 wagers · RTP 69,35%

European RouletteR 2 8285 wagers · RTP 44,84%

BlackjackR 2 1694 wagers · RTP 58,46%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 7874 wagers · RTP 51,05%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 50,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 3631 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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