Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #913 of 1,000

P0698

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 27,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 805

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 195

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 222Deviation -R 6 973

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 195. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 579

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 900 to R 20 394
Finished ahead: 217 / 1,000 (21,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #851 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,50% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.113
Mean bets / session: 5.889
Loss multiplier: 1.3528×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 81,1% / 54,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 16 26343 wagers · RTP 44,73%

Craps / DiceR 10 71428 wagers · RTP 126,04%

Virtual Sports BettingR 9 13827 wagers · RTP 75,95%

CrashR 8 08032 wagers · RTP 88,95%

BaccaratR 3 76510 wagers · RTP 57,39%

European RouletteR 3 1978 wagers · RTP 278,79%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 56112 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 31910 wagers · RTP 114,68%

BlackjackR 1 4632 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3344 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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