Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #853 of 1,000

P0700

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 48,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 407

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 593

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 592Deviation -R 6 000

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 593. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 420

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 933 to R 25 390
Finished ahead: 231 / 1,000 (23,1%)
At least one ruin: 2 / 1,000 (0,2%)
Median rank: #846 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,37% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.887
Mean bets / session: 5.681
Loss multiplier: 1.5054×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 69,2% / 62,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 9 30125 wagers · RTP 88,71%

Craps / DiceR 7 51820 wagers · RTP 129,50%

CrashR 6 73722 wagers · RTP 30,14%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 3467 wagers · RTP 112,26%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 30211 wagers · RTP 10,86%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 30023 wagers · RTP 43,48%

European RouletteR 2 1295 wagers · RTP 67,50%

BaccaratR 1 8764 wagers · RTP 79,93%

Three-Reel SlotR 3842 wagers · RTP 69,79%

BlackjackR 3572 wagers · RTP 154,62%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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