Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #39 of 1,000

P0703

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 98,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 24 040

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 14 040

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 562Deviation R 15 602

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 14 040. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 066

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 668 to R 4 632
Finished ahead: 226 / 1,000 (22,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #558 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,78% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.012
Mean bets / session: 2.256
Loss multiplier: 1.0074×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 9,5% / 24,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 4 58514 wagers · RTP 39,87%

BaccaratR 4 53510 wagers · RTP 36,71%

Craps / DiceR 3 26410 wagers · RTP 109,99%

European RouletteR 3 1988 wagers · RTP 63,07%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0295 wagers · RTP 2 226,24%

Three-Reel SlotR 9284 wagers · RTP 46,12%

American RouletteR 5573 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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