Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #623 of 1,000

P0705

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 11,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 824

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 176

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 343Deviation -R 2 833

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 176. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 503

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 527 to R 4 636
Finished ahead: 263 / 1,000 (26,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #484 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,12% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.909
Mean bets / session: 4.272
Loss multiplier: 1.0154×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 9,7% / 14,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 2 20625 wagers · RTP 52,90%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 94422 wagers · RTP 101,67%

BaccaratR 1 35516 wagers · RTP 100,16%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 85410 wagers · RTP 9,02%

Craps / DiceR 7538 wagers · RTP 120,58%

BlackjackR 6247 wagers · RTP 46,47%

American RouletteR 5646 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 4575 wagers · RTP 56,56%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3614 wagers · RTP 66,71%

Lottery / JackpotR 3334 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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