Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #453 of 1,000

P0707

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 21,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 505

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 495

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 247Deviation -R 1 249

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 495. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 881

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 080 to R 3 201
Finished ahead: 239 / 1,000 (23,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #412 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,76% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.727
Mean bets / session: 4.038
Loss multiplier: 1.0078×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 15,9% / 23,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 37420 wagers · RTP 128,89%

Craps / DiceR 1 36521 wagers · RTP 110,62%

European RouletteR 1 09417 wagers · RTP 61,15%

American RouletteR 5969 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4817 wagers · RTP 60,38%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4096 wagers · RTP 17,85%

Lottery / JackpotR 4036 wagers · RTP 34,24%

Three-Reel SlotR 3405 wagers · RTP 50,88%

CrashR 2654 wagers · RTP 80,57%

BlackjackR 1833 wagers · RTP 96,72%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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