Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #491 of 1,000

P0711

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 28,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 224

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 776

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 255Deviation -R 1 522

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 776. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 040

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 730 to R 3 431
Finished ahead: 277 / 1,000 (27,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #430 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,02% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.699
Mean bets / session: 3.562
Loss multiplier: 1.0199×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 12,5% / 18,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 1 18813 wagers · RTP 134,51%

BaccaratR 1 11112 wagers · RTP 69,68%

CrashR 1 01611 wagers · RTP 50,81%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6427 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 4725 wagers · RTP 102,12%

Lottery / JackpotR 4445 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 4325 wagers · RTP 139,35%

Craps / DiceR 3794 wagers · RTP 96,04%

American RouletteR 2933 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2723 wagers · RTP 50,06%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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