Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #494 of 1,000

P0712

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 45,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 220

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 780

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 393Deviation -R 1 387

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 780. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 530

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 749 to R 4 901
Finished ahead: 257 / 1,000 (25,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #488 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,94% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.119
Mean bets / session: 4.88
Loss multiplier: 1.0029×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 9,2% / 21,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2 11327 wagers · RTP 92,53%

European RouletteR 1 96926 wagers · RTP 73,24%

American RouletteR 1 96126 wagers · RTP 81,90%

CrashR 99313 wagers · RTP 52,92%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 78210 wagers · RTP 9,72%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6899 wagers · RTP 128,29%

Lottery / JackpotR 4586 wagers · RTP 155,02%

Craps / DiceR 3755 wagers · RTP 121,07%

Three-Reel SlotR 2463 wagers · RTP 33,33%

BlackjackR 2193 wagers · RTP 132,42%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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