Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #529 of 1,000

P0714

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 9,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 912

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 088

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 208Deviation -R 1 880

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 088. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 967

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 383 to R 3 180
Finished ahead: 269 / 1,000 (26,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #421 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,08% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.877
Mean bets / session: 2.227
Loss multiplier: 1.0075×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 14,4% / 13,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 17712 wagers · RTP 99,83%

European RouletteR 1 06711 wagers · RTP 57,36%

American RouletteR 7678 wagers · RTP 24,51%

CrashR 4675 wagers · RTP 93,68%

Three-Reel SlotR 3724 wagers · RTP 110,35%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3664 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 3504 wagers · RTP 46,29%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3043 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1912 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1902 wagers · RTP 93,68%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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