Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #702 of 1,000

P0716

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 6,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 568

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 432

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 447Deviation -R 3 985

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 432. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 389

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 520 to R 10 428
Finished ahead: 211 / 1,000 (21,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #583 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,66% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.628
Mean bets / session: 4.48
Loss multiplier: 1.0043×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 14,6% / 20,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 2 36720 wagers · RTP 47,02%

BaccaratR 1 81015 wagers · RTP 92,27%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 25410 wagers · RTP 52,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 1119 wagers · RTP 11,07%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0118 wagers · RTP 24,93%

Craps / DiceR 8877 wagers · RTP 95,83%

American RouletteR 5264 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4895 wagers · RTP 40,90%

BlackjackR 4764 wagers · RTP 155,88%

CrashR 4564 wagers · RTP 77,41%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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