Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #455 of 1,000

P0720

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 72,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 495

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 505

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 700Deviation -R 805

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 505. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 097

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 525 to R 7 569
Finished ahead: 186 / 1,000 (18,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #644 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,80% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.108
Mean bets / session: 3.665
Loss multiplier: 1.0021×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 13,4% / 20,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2 62418 wagers · RTP 158,80%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 80018 wagers · RTP 33,33%

European RouletteR 1 60111 wagers · RTP 26,23%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 45310 wagers · RTP 13,73%

BlackjackR 1 38710 wagers · RTP 126,46%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 2578 wagers · RTP 73,70%

American RouletteR 1 1648 wagers · RTP 134,11%

Craps / DiceR 1 0577 wagers · RTP 115,04%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2942 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2882 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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