Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #174 of 1,000

P0725

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 73,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 365

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 365

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 125Deviation R 490

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 365. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 926

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 652 to R 4 249
Finished ahead: 304 / 1,000 (30,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #417 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,34% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.612
Mean bets / session: 2.801
Loss multiplier: 1.018×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 13,5% / 24,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 60612 wagers · RTP 84,56%

European RouletteR 9167 wagers · RTP 102,62%

Three-Reel SlotR 4053 wagers · RTP 123,95%

American RouletteR 3993 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2292 wagers · RTP 161,03%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1581 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1341 wagers · RTP 358,71%

Craps / DiceR 1141 wagers · RTP 500,00%

BlackjackR 1071 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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