Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #648 of 1,000

P0735

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 27,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 491

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 509

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 575Deviation -R 2 934

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 509. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 191

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 993 to R 6 531
Finished ahead: 249 / 1,000 (24,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #567 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,40% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.18
Mean bets / session: 4.424
Loss multiplier: 1.006×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 15,2% / 14,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 3 22527 wagers · RTP 107,02%

European RouletteR 2 80324 wagers · RTP 48,88%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 21519 wagers · RTP 74,99%

CrashR 1 90916 wagers · RTP 82,27%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 37511 wagers · RTP 81,40%

BlackjackR 1 1419 wagers · RTP 24,19%

American RouletteR 1 0588 wagers · RTP 173,91%

Craps / DiceR 6766 wagers · RTP 63,02%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6325 wagers · RTP 34,65%

Lottery / JackpotR 5926 wagers · RTP 31,08%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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