Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #535 of 1,000

P0743

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 9,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 857

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 143

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 275Deviation -R 1 868

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 143. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 925

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 340 to R 2 656
Finished ahead: 245 / 1,000 (24,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #418 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,84% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.874
Mean bets / session: 2.967
Loss multiplier: 1.017×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 9,1% / 12,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 1 34618 wagers · RTP 61,74%

BaccaratR 1 00113 wagers · RTP 61,74%

BlackjackR 6899 wagers · RTP 77,36%

Craps / DiceR 6729 wagers · RTP 124,40%

Lottery / JackpotR 5417 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3224 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3064 wagers · RTP 47,06%

American RouletteR 3034 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2924 wagers · RTP 126,20%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2293 wagers · RTP 99,52%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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