Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #613 of 1,000

P0752

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 41,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 955

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 045

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 574Deviation -R 2 471

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 045. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 509

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 012 to R 9 230
Finished ahead: 241 / 1,000 (24,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #597 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.066
Mean bets / session: 3.944
Loss multiplier: 1.0153×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 11,7% / 17,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2 12717 wagers · RTP 75,22%

American RouletteR 1 93316 wagers · RTP 45,63%

European RouletteR 1 91616 wagers · RTP 149,43%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 1689 wagers · RTP 63,53%

Craps / DiceR 1 1199 wagers · RTP 45,04%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0118 wagers · RTP 51,24%

BlackjackR 9568 wagers · RTP 117,26%

Lottery / JackpotR 7958 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 7276 wagers · RTP 37,48%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6806 wagers · RTP 130,12%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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