Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #574 of 1,000

P0765

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 33,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 498

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 502

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 392Deviation -R 2 110

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 502. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 719

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 014 to R 4 979
Finished ahead: 234 / 1,000 (23,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #514 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,61% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.013
Mean bets / session: 2.633
Loss multiplier: 1.0143×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 15,5% / 19,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2 45918 wagers · RTP 75,01%

European RouletteR 1 56111 wagers · RTP 125,18%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 1638 wagers · RTP 111,95%

American RouletteR 9907 wagers · RTP 43,94%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8506 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 5334 wagers · RTP 142,31%

Craps / DiceR 3773 wagers · RTP 62,07%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3703 wagers · RTP 78,95%

BlackjackR 3192 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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