Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #545 of 1,000

P0776

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 66,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 769

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 231

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 787Deviation -R 1 444

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 231. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 566

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 056 to R 12 190
Finished ahead: 194 / 1,000 (19,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #678 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.088
Mean bets / session: 4.909
Loss multiplier: 1.004×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 13,4% / 12,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 4 30829 wagers · RTP 64,81%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 96226 wagers · RTP 3,94%

BaccaratR 3 39024 wagers · RTP 100,41%

CrashR 2 02613 wagers · RTP 104,90%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 58311 wagers · RTP 34,24%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3389 wagers · RTP 70,83%

American RouletteR 1 2898 wagers · RTP 484,79%

Craps / DiceR 1 2799 wagers · RTP 134,32%

BlackjackR 1 1107 wagers · RTP 55,86%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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