Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #429 of 1,000

P0777

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 43,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 869

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 131

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 259Deviation -R 872

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 131. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 974

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 264 to R 2 313
Finished ahead: 220 / 1,000 (22,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #424 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,83% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.648
Mean bets / session: 4.651
Loss multiplier: 1.0034×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 11,9% / 14,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 38318 wagers · RTP 114,82%

Craps / DiceR 1 12315 wagers · RTP 87,71%

European RouletteR 96013 wagers · RTP 39,69%

Three-Reel SlotR 5347 wagers · RTP 29,03%

Lottery / JackpotR 3935 wagers · RTP 77,35%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3835 wagers · RTP 109,46%

BlackjackR 2333 wagers · RTP 69,53%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2313 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2223 wagers · RTP 173,87%

CrashR 1482 wagers · RTP 66,72%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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