Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #500 of 1,000

P0778

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 32,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 166

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 834

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 511Deviation -R 1 324

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 834. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 271

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 073 to R 2 632
Finished ahead: 228 / 1,000 (22,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #458 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,09% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.84
Mean bets / session: 2.575
Loss multiplier: 1.0156×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 9,5% / 22,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 1 24812 wagers · RTP 91,19%

Craps / DiceR 9189 wagers · RTP 56,10%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8188 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 8068 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5786 wagers · RTP 34,60%

BlackjackR 5085 wagers · RTP 112,20%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5035 wagers · RTP 93,62%

CrashR 3123 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1962 wagers · RTP 272,96%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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