Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #496 of 1,000

P0781

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 31,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 207

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 793

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 290Deviation -R 1 504

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 793. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 142

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 835 to R 6 093
Finished ahead: 274 / 1,000 (27,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #444 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,75% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.169
Mean bets / session: 3.809
Loss multiplier: 1.0042×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 8,3% / 27,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 2 19633 wagers · RTP 84,20%

BaccaratR 1 51124 wagers · RTP 112,05%

CrashR 96915 wagers · RTP 123,76%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 77212 wagers · RTP 16,06%

American RouletteR 68411 wagers · RTP 39,18%

Craps / DiceR 5669 wagers · RTP 70,32%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3966 wagers · RTP 78,64%

Lottery / JackpotR 3415 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 3245 wagers · RTP 119,75%

Three-Reel SlotR 2654 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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