Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #587 of 1,000

P0782

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 35,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 341

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 659

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 364Deviation -R 2 295

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 659. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 955

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 070 to R 5 618
Finished ahead: 234 / 1,000 (23,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #538 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,18% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.143
Mean bets / session: 3.558
Loss multiplier: 1.0077×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 8,9% / 20,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 2 36124 wagers · RTP 41,04%

BaccaratR 1 67817 wagers · RTP 106,26%

American RouletteR 1 25113 wagers · RTP 52,52%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6877 wagers · RTP 104,33%

CrashR 6146 wagers · RTP 69,63%

BlackjackR 6136 wagers · RTP 63,13%

Craps / DiceR 5686 wagers · RTP 110,04%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4945 wagers · RTP 129,15%

Lottery / JackpotR 3754 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3093 wagers · RTP 28,48%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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