Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #569 of 1,000

P0783

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 34,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 537

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 463

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 390Deviation -R 2 073

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 463. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 759

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 089 to R 9 093
Finished ahead: 270 / 1,000 (27,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #521 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.037
Mean bets / session: 3.334
Loss multiplier: 1.0125×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 11,7% / 27,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 2 96120 wagers · RTP 72,85%

BaccaratR 2 83920 wagers · RTP 87,03%

BlackjackR 2 22316 wagers · RTP 110,48%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 1838 wagers · RTP 115,22%

Craps / DiceR 1 0207 wagers · RTP 56,08%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8586 wagers · RTP 103,96%

American RouletteR 7465 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 4523 wagers · RTP 108,90%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2842 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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