Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #27 of 1,000

P0786

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 99,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 29 332

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 19 332

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 214Deviation R 20 546

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 19 332. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 868

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 963 to R 6 884
Finished ahead: 221 / 1,000 (22,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #531 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,28% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.077
Mean bets / session: 2.145
Loss multiplier: 1.0083×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 14,5% / 19,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 4 59914 wagers · RTP 61,06%

European RouletteR 4 04811 wagers · RTP 138,29%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 3628 wagers · RTP 1 165,64%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 1633 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1 0793 wagers · RTP 78,31%

American RouletteR 8113 wagers · RTP 934,03%

BlackjackR 7642 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7504 wagers · RTP 75,20%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 4582 wagers · RTP 371,18%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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