Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #135 of 1,000

P0787

Strict limits. The visible result sits at the 87,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 185

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 185

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 333Deviation R 1 518

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 185. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 113

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 790 to R 3 622
Finished ahead: 252 / 1,000 (25,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #439 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,85% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.982
Mean bets / session: 3.807
Loss multiplier: 1.0141×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 12,5% / 18,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 2 32024 wagers · RTP 108,71%

BaccaratR 2 02922 wagers · RTP 82,62%

European RouletteR 1 42516 wagers · RTP 252,63%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6877 wagers · RTP 65,79%

Lottery / JackpotR 6567 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4775 wagers · RTP 89,10%

Three-Reel SlotR 3854 wagers · RTP 23,90%

American RouletteR 3574 wagers · RTP 114,01%

BlackjackR 2853 wagers · RTP 215,26%

CrashR 2533 wagers · RTP 107,31%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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