Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #785 of 1,000

P0802

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 2,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 981

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 019

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 515Deviation -R 5 504

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 019. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 237

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 303 to R 7 353
Finished ahead: 224 / 1,000 (22,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #565 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,40% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.647
Mean bets / session: 2.071
Loss multiplier: 1.1887×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,7% / 48,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 08913 wagers · RTP 11,59%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 37410 wagers · RTP 52,65%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 7148 wagers · RTP 60,27%

BaccaratR 1 3595 wagers · RTP 40,47%

European RouletteR 1 3265 wagers · RTP 34,09%

BlackjackR 7313 wagers · RTP 162,38%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 75,00%

CrashR 2751 wagers · RTP 125,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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