Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #524 of 1,000

P0803

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 54,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 971

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 029

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 465Deviation -R 1 565

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 029. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 192

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 090 to R 12 354
Finished ahead: 176 / 1,000 (17,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #569 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,09% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.221
Mean bets / session: 2.511
Loss multiplier: 1.1273×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,3% / 64,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 77330 wagers · RTP 101,94%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 79215 wagers · RTP 23,49%

BlackjackR 1 36211 wagers · RTP 42,58%

CrashR 6575 wagers · RTP 74,89%

Craps / DiceR 6417 wagers · RTP 78,32%

European RouletteR 5705 wagers · RTP 133,68%

BaccaratR 5054 wagers · RTP 94,60%

Three-Reel SlotR 4794 wagers · RTP 38,52%

American RouletteR 2632 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2533 wagers · RTP 395,26%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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