Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #731 of 1,000

P0804

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 64,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 110

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 890

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 946Deviation -R 2 944

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 890. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 932

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 451 to R 25 270
Finished ahead: 205 / 1,000 (20,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #830 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,26% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.069
Mean bets / session: 4.654
Loss multiplier: 0.9614×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,1% / 47,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 11 14824 wagers · RTP 89,65%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8 94926 wagers · RTP 75,39%

Craps / DiceR 6 42814 wagers · RTP 70,30%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 49422 wagers · RTP 31,85%

CrashR 4 38510 wagers · RTP 138,81%

American RouletteR 4 08610 wagers · RTP 167,33%

BlackjackR 2 9436 wagers · RTP 143,22%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 1119 wagers · RTP 64,21%

European RouletteR 1 7105 wagers · RTP 73,68%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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