Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #605 of 1,000

P0806

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 62,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 059

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 941

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 842Deviation -R 2 099

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 941. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 326

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 466 to R 23 528
Finished ahead: 222 / 1,000 (22,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #720 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,19% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.022
Mean bets / session: 2.469
Loss multiplier: 0.9833×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,6% / 99,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 47522 wagers · RTP 46,68%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 20411 wagers · RTP 125,18%

CrashR 1 2343 wagers · RTP 99,09%

BaccaratR 1 1854 wagers · RTP 117,22%

Lottery / JackpotR 8949 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 8824 wagers · RTP 225,51%

Craps / DiceR 8423 wagers · RTP 65,08%

Three-Reel SlotR 8404 wagers · RTP 59,52%

BlackjackR 8282 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 5572 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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