Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #778 of 1,000

P0807

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 24,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 131

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 869

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 027Deviation -R 4 842

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 869. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 735

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 560 to R 21 876
Finished ahead: 219 / 1,000 (21,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #688 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,89% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.871
Mean bets / session: 2.563
Loss multiplier: 0.9904×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,6% / 80,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 50015 wagers · RTP 76,74%

BlackjackR 3 53510 wagers · RTP 118,98%

Craps / DiceR 2 2047 wagers · RTP 110,44%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 8799 wagers · RTP 7,61%

European RouletteR 1 5305 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1 4704 wagers · RTP 55,78%

American RouletteR 9493 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 66,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1761 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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