Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #880 of 1,000

P0808

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 1,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 595

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 405

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 789Deviation -R 7 616

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 405. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 561

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 759 to R 24 284
Finished ahead: 263 / 1,000 (26,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #677 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,63% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.773
Mean bets / session: 2.722
Loss multiplier: 1.013×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 38,5% / 74,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 57817 wagers · RTP 66,64%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 52816 wagers · RTP 20,95%

BlackjackR 3 2285 wagers · RTP 71,75%

CrashR 1 5516 wagers · RTP 62,14%

BaccaratR 1 1665 wagers · RTP 118,24%

American RouletteR 1 0133 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7624 wagers · RTP 11,94%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 4182 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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