Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #518 of 1,000

P0809

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 25,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 035

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 965

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 285Deviation -R 1 680

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 965. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 367

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 644 to R 6 843
Finished ahead: 181 / 1,000 (18,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #470 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,70% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.916
Mean bets / session: 2.964
Loss multiplier: 1.0091×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 71,4% / 76,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 50620 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 92314 wagers · RTP 99,13%

Lottery / JackpotR 6008 wagers · RTP 55,67%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5849 wagers · RTP 16,26%

Three-Reel SlotR 3314 wagers · RTP 68,28%

BlackjackR 2884 wagers · RTP 120,14%

American RouletteR 2743 wagers · RTP 199,64%

Craps / DiceR 2374 wagers · RTP 200,00%

BaccaratR 1763 wagers · RTP 49,86%

European RouletteR 711 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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