Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #277 of 1,000

P0810

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 77,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 789

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 211

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 797Deviation R 586

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 211. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 467

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 053 to R 20 063
Finished ahead: 219 / 1,000 (21,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #671 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,24% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.859
Mean bets / session: 2.51
Loss multiplier: 1.1832×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,3% / 40,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 37010 wagers · RTP 143,88%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 50,00%

American RouletteR 2 3597 wagers · RTP 171,43%

BaccaratR 1 6855 wagers · RTP 40,00%

BlackjackR 1 3484 wagers · RTP 75,00%

CrashR 1 0113 wagers · RTP 108,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 00010 wagers · RTP 140,00%

Craps / DiceR 6742 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 3371 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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