Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #829 of 1,000

P0811

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 44,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 083

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 917

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 202Deviation -R 5 714

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 917. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 285

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 602 to R 27 828
Finished ahead: 234 / 1,000 (23,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #804 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,19% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.194
Mean bets / session: 4.115
Loss multiplier: 1.2272×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 61,9% / 50,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6 21125 wagers · RTP 40,25%

European RouletteR 5 38222 wagers · RTP 158,14%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 80719 wagers · RTP 105,49%

CrashR 3 76215 wagers · RTP 30,26%

BlackjackR 2 66811 wagers · RTP 75,86%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 24610 wagers · RTP 51,56%

American RouletteR 1 7147 wagers · RTP 44,28%

Craps / DiceR 1 6307 wagers · RTP 57,79%

BaccaratR 1 5186 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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