Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #24 of 1,000

P0812

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 91,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 30 388

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 20 388

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 348Deviation R 22 737

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 20 388. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 754

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 365 to R 28 007
Finished ahead: 232 / 1,000 (23,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #820 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,93% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.796
Mean bets / session: 4.848
Loss multiplier: 1.019×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,3% / 98,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 14 72918 wagers · RTP 29,19%

BaccaratR 7 7409 wagers · RTP 111,11%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 50013 wagers · RTP 127,33%

CrashR 5 66412 wagers · RTP 64,00%

European RouletteR 5 1606 wagers · RTP 183,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 75019 wagers · RTP 726,32%

Craps / DiceR 4 3005 wagers · RTP 120,00%

BlackjackR 4 2905 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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