Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #827 of 1,000

P0814

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 25,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 099

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 901

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 198Deviation -R 5 703

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 901. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 474

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 996 to R 16 042
Finished ahead: 285 / 1,000 (28,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #670 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,80% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.005
Mean bets / session: 2.044
Loss multiplier: 1.0947×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 51,5% / 42,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 5 46911 wagers · RTP 71,42%

European RouletteR 5 46110 wagers · RTP 36,09%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 4689 wagers · RTP 83,67%

Craps / DiceR 1 9894 wagers · RTP 64,10%

BlackjackR 1 5653 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 1 4403 wagers · RTP 177,50%

CrashR 1 2803 wagers · RTP 156,25%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 20,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 183,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies