Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #733 of 1,000

P0815

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 33,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 062

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 938

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 715Deviation -R 4 223

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 938. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 943

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 642 to R 16 300
Finished ahead: 220 / 1,000 (22,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #702 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,78% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.113
Mean bets / session: 4.544
Loss multiplier: 0.9282×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,7% / 81,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 16527 wagers · RTP 86,61%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 86322 wagers · RTP 50,68%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 82520 wagers · RTP 51,54%

European RouletteR 1 57210 wagers · RTP 17,68%

BaccaratR 1 5529 wagers · RTP 89,43%

BlackjackR 1 1437 wagers · RTP 72,97%

Lottery / JackpotR 8029 wagers · RTP 108,48%

Craps / DiceR 7727 wagers · RTP 94,30%

American RouletteR 4925 wagers · RTP 35,98%

CrashR 3634 wagers · RTP 189,53%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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