Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #656 of 1,000

P0817

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 67,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 201

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 799

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 603Deviation -R 2 195

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 799. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 292

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 790 to R 26 500
Finished ahead: 226 / 1,000 (22,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #841 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,80% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.874
Mean bets / session: 4.351
Loss multiplier: 1.188×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 38,9% / 87,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 11 16524 wagers · RTP 101,37%

Craps / DiceR 10 18415 wagers · RTP 133,19%

American RouletteR 5 1479 wagers · RTP 45,41%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 98920 wagers · RTP 30,07%

BlackjackR 3 3415 wagers · RTP 145,39%

BaccaratR 3 2465 wagers · RTP 95,77%

CrashR 2 0004 wagers · RTP 31,25%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 121,43%

European RouletteR 1 2122 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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