Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #644 of 1,000

P0818

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 62,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 573

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 427

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 133Deviation -R 2 294

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 427. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 110

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 925 to R 27 177
Finished ahead: 223 / 1,000 (22,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #756 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.852
Mean bets / session: 4.287
Loss multiplier: 1.0317×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,6% / 49,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 8 34430 wagers · RTP 114,21%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 39118 wagers · RTP 17,06%

American RouletteR 2 0167 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 9067 wagers · RTP 119,67%

European RouletteR 1 8557 wagers · RTP 332,18%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 14,29%

BaccaratR 1 7286 wagers · RTP 130,00%

CrashR 1 6856 wagers · RTP 34,18%

Craps / DiceR 1 0464 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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