Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #964 of 1,000

P0820

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 5,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 19

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 981

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 052Deviation -R 8 929

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 981. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 725

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 982 to R 25 310
Finished ahead: 231 / 1,000 (23,1%)
At least one ruin: 4 / 1,000 (0,4%)
Median rank: #888 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,11% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.202
Mean bets / session: 4.639
Loss multiplier: 1.1316×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,1% / 43,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 46639 wagers · RTP 67,91%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 17926 wagers · RTP 8,59%

American RouletteR 1 63011 wagers · RTP 15,46%

BlackjackR 1 5775 wagers · RTP 126,95%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 54828 wagers · RTP 3,36%

BaccaratR 1 44218 wagers · RTP 59,23%

Craps / DiceR 1 2528 wagers · RTP 79,39%

European RouletteR 1 2096 wagers · RTP 22,66%

CrashR 7847 wagers · RTP 3,22%

Three-Reel SlotR 3447 wagers · RTP 96,80%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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