Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #45 of 1,000

P0821

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 87,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 22 365

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 12 365

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 060Deviation R 13 425

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 12 365. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 531

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 411 to R 27 413
Finished ahead: 256 / 1,000 (25,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #815 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.872
Mean bets / session: 4.482
Loss multiplier: 1.0584×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,3% / 66,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 16821 wagers · RTP 78,21%

European RouletteR 4 61823 wagers · RTP 25,16%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 71124 wagers · RTP 568,58%

BlackjackR 2 3377 wagers · RTP 96,90%

CrashR 2 1277 wagers · RTP 84,49%

BaccaratR 2 0876 wagers · RTP 55,39%

Craps / DiceR 1 3565 wagers · RTP 188,50%

American RouletteR 1 1217 wagers · RTP 156,11%

Three-Reel SlotR 6045 wagers · RTP 30,63%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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