Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #712 of 1,000

P0822

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 66,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 394

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 606

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 886Deviation -R 2 720

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 606. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 006

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 832 to R 28 859
Finished ahead: 249 / 1,000 (24,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #863 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,97% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.921
Mean bets / session: 4.595
Loss multiplier: 0.9447×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,3% / 71,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 9 55322 wagers · RTP 197,88%

American RouletteR 7 23115 wagers · RTP 6,43%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6 70029 wagers · RTP 18,43%

BlackjackR 4 3707 wagers · RTP 141,33%

BaccaratR 3 4447 wagers · RTP 77,47%

Craps / DiceR 1 9265 wagers · RTP 28,35%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5887 wagers · RTP 39,36%

European RouletteR 1 4655 wagers · RTP 45,32%

CrashR 9472 wagers · RTP 236,01%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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