Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #507 of 1,000

P0823

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 58,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 096

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 904

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 615Deviation -R 1 289

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 904. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 342

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 498 to R 9 962
Finished ahead: 211 / 1,000 (21,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #582 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,74% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.881
Mean bets / session: 4.663
Loss multiplier: 1.2227×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,0% / 86,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 63222 wagers · RTP 109,71%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 44420 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 76615 wagers · RTP 51,53%

American RouletteR 1 31912 wagers · RTP 252,46%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 16411 wagers · RTP 24,18%

European RouletteR 6857 wagers · RTP 13,58%

Lottery / JackpotR 5247 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 5125 wagers · RTP 125,39%

BaccaratR 3583 wagers · RTP 200,00%

CrashR 1602 wagers · RTP 500,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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