Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #706 of 1,000

P0825

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 50,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 475

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 525

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 847Deviation -R 3 677

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 525. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 613

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 800 to R 21 890
Finished ahead: 223 / 1,000 (22,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #736 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,58% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.15
Mean bets / session: 3.465
Loss multiplier: 1.0683×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 60,5% / 68,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 87321 wagers · RTP 60,84%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 44620 wagers · RTP 16,87%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 20214 wagers · RTP 109,31%

BlackjackR 1 6708 wagers · RTP 116,92%

BaccaratR 1 5519 wagers · RTP 130,24%

Craps / DiceR 1 4277 wagers · RTP 150,95%

European RouletteR 1 2827 wagers · RTP 107,25%

CrashR 1 0024 wagers · RTP 134,43%

American RouletteR 8353 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies