Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #56 of 1,000

P0827

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 88,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 18 607

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 8 607

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 553Deviation R 10 160

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 8 607. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 961

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 547 to R 24 060
Finished ahead: 229 / 1,000 (22,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #753 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,23% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.161
Mean bets / session: 3.267
Loss multiplier: 1.2025×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,4% / 86,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 8 20314 wagers · RTP 109,03%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 37116 wagers · RTP 110,02%

European RouletteR 5 99610 wagers · RTP 90,46%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 19021 wagers · RTP 33,72%

BlackjackR 4 4767 wagers · RTP 148,47%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 25013 wagers · RTP 57,69%

CrashR 2 3616 wagers · RTP 190,60%

American RouletteR 1 5403 wagers · RTP 622,99%

BaccaratR 1 3182 wagers · RTP 195,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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