Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #522 of 1,000

P0828

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 24,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 984

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 016

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 234Deviation -R 1 782

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 016. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 358

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 772 to R 5 265
Finished ahead: 180 / 1,000 (18,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #469 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,77% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.657
Mean bets / session: 3.366
Loss multiplier: 1.2387×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 67,9% / 43,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 07011 wagers · RTP 117,69%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6977 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 6465 wagers · RTP 62,23%

CrashR 4234 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 3564 wagers · RTP 128,93%

European RouletteR 3263 wagers · RTP 77,30%

Craps / DiceR 3193 wagers · RTP 63,95%

Lottery / JackpotR 3124 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2802 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1631 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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