Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #747 of 1,000

P0829

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 12,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 822

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 178

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 560Deviation -R 4 618

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 178. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 289

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 860 to R 14 221
Finished ahead: 196 / 1,000 (19,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #656 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,16% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.987
Mean bets / session: 4.332
Loss multiplier: 1.094×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,0% / 79,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 3 28230 wagers · RTP 83,14%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 59123 wagers · RTP 32,34%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 75218 wagers · RTP 32,97%

American RouletteR 1 1519 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 75910 wagers · RTP 62,32%

BlackjackR 5965 wagers · RTP 113,51%

Three-Reel SlotR 5263 wagers · RTP 98,86%

Craps / DiceR 4343 wagers · RTP 150,23%

Lottery / JackpotR 3695 wagers · RTP 33,06%

BaccaratR 3062 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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