Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #11 of 1,000

P0830

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 98,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 42 504

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 32 504

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 245Deviation R 33 749

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 32 504. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 460

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 123 to R 25 828
Finished ahead: 231 / 1,000 (23,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #768 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,34% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.807
Mean bets / session: 3.859
Loss multiplier: 0.9895×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,3% / 62,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 18515 wagers · RTP 122,77%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 00020 wagers · RTP 690,00%

CrashR 2 3955 wagers · RTP 325,00%

BaccaratR 2 3955 wagers · RTP 117,00%

American RouletteR 2 3955 wagers · RTP 60,00%

BlackjackR 2 3955 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 81,25%

European RouletteR 1 9164 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 4373 wagers · RTP 66,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 22,22%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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