Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #406 of 1,000

P0831

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 74,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 087

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 913

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 373Deviation -R 540

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 913. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 517

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 525 to R 11 951
Finished ahead: 193 / 1,000 (19,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #598 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,24% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.794
Mean bets / session: 4.249
Loss multiplier: 0.9683×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,6% / 99,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 2 79125 wagers · RTP 91,19%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 29122 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 86116 wagers · RTP 95,85%

Craps / DiceR 6895 wagers · RTP 81,57%

BaccaratR 5855 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 4827 wagers · RTP 77,28%

BlackjackR 4553 wagers · RTP 83,96%

Lottery / JackpotR 2133 wagers · RTP 328,64%

CrashR 1822 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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