Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #591 of 1,000

P0833

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 41,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 317

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 683

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 571Deviation -R 2 112

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 683. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 359

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 538 to R 12 157
Finished ahead: 219 / 1,000 (21,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #581 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,00% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.242
Mean bets / session: 3.126
Loss multiplier: 1.1365×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 62,3% / 98,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 57426 wagers · RTP 64,20%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 52822 wagers · RTP 20,13%

BlackjackR 1 89118 wagers · RTP 94,37%

American RouletteR 1 08911 wagers · RTP 58,22%

European RouletteR 7508 wagers · RTP 76,00%

Craps / DiceR 7237 wagers · RTP 171,37%

CrashR 7207 wagers · RTP 247,74%

Lottery / JackpotR 3925 wagers · RTP 40,82%

BaccaratR 2633 wagers · RTP 28,90%

Three-Reel SlotR 1622 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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