Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #609 of 1,000

P0834

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 51,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 006

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 994

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 644Deviation -R 2 350

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 994. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 157

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 011 to R 23 699
Finished ahead: 225 / 1,000 (22,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #645 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,15% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.167
Mean bets / session: 2.561
Loss multiplier: 1.2193×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,9% / 59,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 3 51917 wagers · RTP 115,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 31216 wagers · RTP 43,02%

CrashR 3 10515 wagers · RTP 113,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 27711 wagers · RTP 63,64%

Craps / DiceR 1 0355 wagers · RTP 120,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0355 wagers · RTP 40,00%

BlackjackR 6213 wagers · RTP 66,67%

American RouletteR 6213 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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